Yes, the price of natural gas began to rise significantly in both the world and Europe before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This increase was primarily driven by Russia's deliberate reduction of gas supplies to Europe in 2021, coupled with other market factors.

According to www.iAsk.Ai - Ask AI: The wholesale price of natural gas in the euro area had already soared in 2021, well before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This price increase was not a result of the sanctions imposed by the EU in response to the invasion, nor was it due to Russian countersanctions targeting natural gas imports, as the EU had not sanctioned Russian natural gas at that time.[2] In fact, in 2021, wholesale natural gas prices, on average, increased to almost five times their 2020 level.[2] This surge in wholesale prices subsequently impacted household energy prices, including electricity, with a time lag, primarily in 2022.[2]

Several factors contributed to this pre-war price escalation. The primary reason was Russia's massive reduction of natural gas supplies to the EU via Ukraine, despite available supply capacities.[2] Gazprom, the Russian state-owned gas giant, also showed unusual reluctance to fill its own storage facilities within the EU.[2] These actions are widely believed to have been politically motivated, aimed at pressuring German and EU authorities to approve the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and to increase Ukraine's economic dependence.[2] Some analysts also suggest that Russia, already planning the invasion, intended to create uncertainty in the natural gas market, making it harder for the EU to impose tough measures or sanctions on gas imports after an invasion.[2]

Beyond Russia's strategic maneuvers, other factors played a role. A strong global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG), particularly from China in late 2020 and early 2021, amplified the price rise in the euro area at the beginning of 2021.[2] This surge in Chinese demand was largely attributed to an exceptional cold spell, rather than a long-term shift in energy policy.[2] Additionally, overall economic demand rapidly increased in 2021 following the sharp decline during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, contributing to higher fossil fuel prices generally.[2]

While natural gas prices continued to rise in 2022 after the invasion, the rate of increase was significantly lower than in 2021, and prices even declined in 2023.[2] This was due to the EU's efforts to diversify natural gas imports, particularly increasing LNG imports, substituting natural gas with other energy sources, and reducing overall energy consumption.[2] Despite these efforts, natural gas prices in 2025 remain higher than before the war in Ukraine.[1]

The UK also experienced rising gas prices in 2021, prior to the full-scale invasion.[4] The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) estimates that the UK spent an additional £90 billion on gas between the start of 2021 and the end of 2024, compared to pre-crisis levels.[4] This highlights that the gas crisis and its associated costs began before the direct military conflict escalated.[4]

Answer Provided by iAsk.ai – Ask AI.