Да ли Вучић може да буде премијер ако се избори у Србији одрже следеће године?

Yes, Aleksandar Vučić could potentially serve as Prime Minister if elections are held next year, although his current role is President of Serbia. The Serbian constitution defines the presidency as largely ceremonial, without significant executive power. However, since the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) came to power in 2012, Vučić has consistently held the most influence in government, first as First Deputy Prime Minister, then as Prime Minister, and currently as President. This has led to a system where the president, despite the constitutional limitations, wields considerable de facto power, often described as an authoritarian or illiberal democratic regime. If elections were to be held next year, and the SNS-led coalition were to secure a parliamentary majority, Vučić, as the dominant figure within the ruling party, could theoretically assume the role of Prime Minister again, or appoint a loyalist to the position while retaining significant control.

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The question of whether Aleksandar Vučić could become Prime Minister again is complex, given his current position as President and the political dynamics in Serbia. While the Serbian constitution outlines a parliamentary republic where the President's role is largely ceremonial, Vučić has consistently been the most influential political figure since the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) came to power in 2012. He served as First Deputy Prime Minister from 2012 to 2014, then as Prime Minister from 2014 to 2017, before being elected President in 2017 and re-elected in 2022. [1] [2] [3]

This history demonstrates a pattern where Vučić, regardless of his official title, has maintained significant control over the government. Analysts have noted that even when he was First Deputy Prime Minister, he held more influence than the then-Prime Minister Ivica Dačić. [5] Similarly, during his presidency, he has been described as accumulating executive powers that conflict with his constitutional role, leading to characterizations of his rule as authoritarian or illiberal democratic. [1] [12] [13] [14] [15]

If parliamentary elections were to be held in Serbia next year (2026), and the SNS-led coalition were to win a majority, there are several scenarios regarding Vučić's potential role as Prime Minister:

1. Direct Assumption of Premiership: While less common for a sitting president in a parliamentary system, Vučić could theoretically resign from the presidency and assume the role of Prime Minister if his party secures a strong majority. This would require a constitutional or political maneuver, but given his dominant position, it is not entirely outside the realm of possibility.
2. Appointment of a Loyalist Prime Minister with Continued De Facto Control: This is the more likely scenario, mirroring his current approach. Vučić could appoint a close associate, such as Miloš Vučević (who recently resigned as Prime Minister) [6] or Ana Brnabić (who previously served as Prime Minister under his presidency), [4] to the position of Prime Minister. In this arrangement, the Prime Minister would formally lead the government, but Vučić, as President and the leader of the ruling party, would continue to exert significant influence and control over policy decisions and government operations. This has been a characteristic of his rule, where he effectively governs the country despite the ceremonial nature of his presidential office. [1] [12] [13] [14] [15]
3. Constitutional Amendment to Strengthen Presidential Powers: Although less probable in the short term, a more fundamental shift could involve amending the constitution to grant the President more executive powers, thereby formalizing Vučić's de facto control. However, this would be a significant undertaking and is not currently a stated objective.

The timing of elections in Serbia has often been influenced by political strategy rather than strict adherence to regular terms. Out of 14 parliamentary elections in modern Serbian history, 10 have been snap elections. [4] Since the SNS came to power in 2012, there have been four snap parliamentary elections (2014, 2016, 2022, and 2023), despite the ruling coalition consistently holding a stable majority. [4] [6] These snap elections have been used by the ruling party to consolidate power and "satirize the opposition." [4]

President Vučić himself has made various statements regarding the timing of future elections. As of early 2025, he indicated that elections would be held "either at the end of next year or at the beginning of 2027." [3] He also stated that he would "give snap elections" once preparations for Expo 2027 are complete. [7] This suggests that the decision on elections remains largely within his control and is tied to broader strategic goals.

The recent resignation of Prime Minister Miloš Vučević in January 2025, following widespread student protests, opened the possibility of new elections. [6] [8] Vučić stated that if a new government is not formed within 30 days of the Prime Minister's resignation being confirmed by the Assembly, then snap elections would be called, likely in early June. [9] [10] However, as of August 1, 2025, a new government has been formed, and the focus has shifted to the previously mentioned timeline of late 2026 or early 2027 for the next parliamentary elections.

In conclusion, while Aleksandar Vučić is currently the President, his history of maintaining significant political power regardless of his formal position, combined with the flexible nature of election timing in Serbia, means that he could indeed be the Prime Minister if elections are held next year, or more likely, continue to exert dominant control over a government led by a loyalist Prime Minister. The political landscape in Serbia under Vučić has been characterized by a strongman rule where the lines between presidential and prime ministerial powers are blurred in practice. [1] [12] [13] [14] [15]

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