Understanding Turkey's Foreign Policy

Here's an analysis of Turkey's foreign policy, considering the provided sources and my knowledge:

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Turkey's foreign policy has undergone significant transformations, particularly since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002. This shift has been characterized by a move away from the traditional Western orientation of the Kemalist era and towards a more assertive, independent, and at times, anti-Western stance.[1] This evolution is often linked to the ideology of Neo-Ottomanism, which emphasizes Turkey's historical ties and potential influence in regions formerly under Ottoman rule.[2] However, it's crucial to understand the nuances and complexities of this shift, as well as the various factors driving it.

The Roots of Neo-Ottomanism

The AKP's foreign policy has evolved through distinct phases, including a period of liberal internationalism, civilizational expansionism, and a current phase marked by ultra-nationalism and anti-Westernism.[3] This evolution reflects a broader trend of populism, where foreign policy is used as a tool to mobilize support, tarnish enemies, and maintain power.[4]

Key Drivers of Change

Neo-Ottomanism, in its broadest sense, advocates for honoring Turkey's Ottoman past and promoting greater engagement in regions formerly under Ottoman rule.[2] This ideology gained traction at the end of the Cold War, with the dissolution of the Soviet Union.[6] The term itself has been used since the 1980s, but it gained prominence in the 21st century with the rise of the AKP.[22] The AKP has used this ideology to support greater influence of Ottoman culture in domestic social policy, which has caused issues with the secular and republican credentials of modern Turkey.[24] The AKP has used slogans such as Osmanlı torunu ("descendant of the Ottomans") to refer to their supporters and also their leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (who was elected President in 2014) during their election campaigns.[26]

The AKP's foreign policy has evolved through distinct phases:

Phases of AKP Foreign Policy

Several factors have contributed to Turkey's foreign policy shift. The souring of relations with the EU, the relative withdrawal of the United States from the Middle East, and the weakening of the military's influence in foreign policy decision-making have all played a role.[5] The Arab Spring uprisings in 2011 presented an opportunity for Turkey to assert itself regionally, initially through soft power, but later through hard power interventions.[7]

The Role of Populism

• Liberal Internationalism (2002-2007): Characterized by a commitment to the EU and multilateralism.[3]
• Civilizational Expansionism (2008-2014): Marked by an assertive, pan-Islamist, and expansionist foreign policy, often associated with Ahmet Davutoğlu's "Strategic Depth" doctrine.[3]
• Ultra-Nationalism and Anti-Westernism (Present): This phase is characterized by a reprioritization of containing the Kurdish issue and a more inward focus.[3]

Challenges and Criticisms

The AKP's foreign policy has been significantly shaped by populism. Foreign policy has been used as a tool of governance to mobilize popular support, tarnish enemies, and divert attention from failures.[4] This has led to a more flexible and opportunistic approach, where policies are adapted to serve the AKP's interests.[30]

The Current State

Turkey's foreign policy under the AKP has faced numerous challenges and criticisms. The interventions in Syria and Libya, the purchase of the S-400 missile system from Russia, and the deterioration of relations with the West have all led to strategic isolation and economic vulnerabilities.[28] The emphasis on Neo-Ottomanism has also been criticized for overlooking the negative perceptions of the Ottoman legacy in the Balkans and the Middle East.[33]

The current phase of Turkish foreign policy is marked by a complex interplay of factors. While Turkey seeks to maintain its strategic autonomy and regional influence, it faces challenges from a more assertive "Bloc" of countries, including Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.[3] The country's economic vulnerabilities and domestic political instability further complicate its foreign policy choices.[3]

In conclusion, the most accurate answer is that Turkey's foreign policy under the AKP has been characterized by a shift from a Western-oriented approach to a more assertive, independent, and often anti-Western stance, influenced by the ideology of Neo-Ottomanism and driven by populist considerations.

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