Yes, in Serbia, the increase in GDP indirectly includes and accounts for credits, particularly through their impact on private consumption and investments. This is evident from the analysis of economic reports and the relationship between credit activity and economic growth.

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The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) reports indicate that total domestic credits to businesses and households have shown accelerated year-on-year growth, driven significantly by household lending. For instance, in December 2024, household lending achieved a double-digit growth of 10.4%, while corporate lending increased by 4.8% [3]. This surge in credit activity is attributed to eased credit standards, promotional bank offers, lower interest rates, and rising wages [3]. The World Bank also highlights that the strong GDP growth in the first and second quarters of 2024, at 4.6% and 4% respectively, was a result of the recovery in private sector consumption and investments [2] [5]. Since credits fuel both consumption and investment, their role in GDP growth is undeniable.

Step-by-step analysis of how credits are indirectly included in GDP:

1. Increased Private Consumption: A significant portion of household credits, such as cash loans and consumer loans, directly translates into increased spending on goods and services. The NBS report notes that cash loans constituted over three-fifths of the increase in household credits [3]. This rise in consumer spending is a direct component of GDP calculation.

2. Stimulated Investments: Credits to both households (e.g., housing loans) and businesses (e.g., investment loans) contribute to capital formation. Housing loans, although their share in total household loans remained relatively stable at 38.4% in Q4 2024, still represent substantial investment in real estate [3]. For businesses, investment lending was a primary driver of credit growth, accounting for 40.1 billion dinars of the increase in corporate credits [3]. These investments, particularly in sectors like construction and manufacturing, directly contribute to GDP [2] [5]. Public investments, often financed through borrowing, also play a crucial role in stimulating economic activity and employment in the construction sector, which in turn facilitates further credit uptake [1].

3. Impact on Economic Confidence and Activity: The availability of credit at favorable terms fosters economic confidence among both consumers and businesses. This confidence encourages further spending and investment, creating a positive feedback loop that boosts overall economic activity and, consequently, GDP [1]. The World Bank's positive assessment of Serbia's economic activities and improved GDP growth forecasts are partly due to accelerated economic work, supported by private sector consumption and investments [2].

4. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates: The National Bank of Serbia's monetary policy, including adjustments to reference interest rates, directly influences the cost and availability of credit. The reduction in average interest rates on newly approved dinar and euro-denominated loans in Q4 2024 made borrowing more attractive, further stimulating credit demand and economic activity [3]. For example, the average interest rate on newly approved dinar loans to households dropped to 9.9% in December 2024, the first time it reached a single-digit level in two and a half years [3].

5. "Flight to Real Estate" Phenomenon: Currency instability can lead to a "flight to real estate," where citizens convert savings into properties to protect against devaluation. This increases demand for real estate and, consequently, for housing loans, indirectly boosting economic activity and GDP [1].

While GDP measures the total monetary value of all finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period, credits are not directly counted as part of GDP. Instead, they are a crucial financial instrument that facilitates the transactions and investments that do constitute GDP. The relationship is one of enablement and stimulation. The velocity of money, which is influenced by credit activity, also plays a role. A higher velocity of money, often spurred by credit, indicates more frequent transactions and can contribute to a larger nominal GDP, assuming the money supply remains constant [4].

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