Introduction to Human Extinction Risks

The possibility of human extinction has garnered significant attention in recent years, with various studies and experts weighing in on the potential causes and their likelihood. Human extinction can result from a multitude of factors, ranging from natural disasters to anthropogenic activities.

Natural Risks

Natural risks, although considered relatively low, include asteroid impacts, supervolcanic eruptions, and stellar explosions. According to Snyder-Beattie et al., the annual probability of extinction from exogenous risks is below 1 in 870,000 per year.[1] Asteroid impacts, for instance, have a very low probability of causing human extinction in the near future, with an estimated likelihood of 1 in 120,000 for a >1-km asteroid impact in the coming century.[2]

Anthropogenic Risks

Anthropogenic risks, on the other hand, are considered more significant. These include nuclear war, climate change, and emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI). Toby Ord, in his book "The Precipice," argues that anthropogenic risks far outweigh natural risks, with a significant portion attributed to unaligned AI and engineered pandemics.[3] The likelihood of human extinction due to unaligned AI is estimated to be around 1 in 10 per century.[4]

Most Likely Cause of Human Extinction

The most likely cause of human extinction is a topic of debate among experts, with various sources pointing to different anthropogenic risks. Unaligned artificial intelligence is considered one of the most significant risks, with some estimates suggesting a probability of human extinction ranging from 1 in 10 to as high as 32.2% by 2200.[5] [6] Other significant risks include engineered pandemics and nuclear war, although the latter is considered less likely to result in total human extinction.[7]

Expert Opinions and Estimates

Experts have provided a range of estimates for the likelihood of human extinction due to various causes. For instance, a survey of AI experts found a median estimate of 5% that human-level AI would cause an outcome that was "extremely bad (e.g., human extinction)" by 2100.[8] Another study estimated the risk of human extinction from climate change to be very low, although acknowledging that catastrophic outcomes are still possible.[9]

Conclusion

In conclusion, while there are multiple potential causes for human extinction, the most significant risks are associated with anthropogenic activities, particularly unaligned artificial intelligence and engineered pandemics. Understanding and mitigating these risks is crucial for ensuring the long-term survival of humanity.

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