The demographic landscape of Sarajevo underwent a radical transformation as a result of the 1992–1995 Bosnian War. Before the conflict, Sarajevo was a multi-ethnic urban center with significant populations of Muslims (Bosniaks), Serbs, and Croats living in integrated neighborhoods. Following the war and the subsequent territorial reorganization under the Dayton Agreement, the city became largely mono-ethnic, with a Bosniak majority in the city center and a Serb majority in the newly formed East Sarajevo (including Lukavica).

Pre-War Demographics (1991 Census)

In 1991, the "Greater Sarajevo" area consisted of ten municipalities: Centar, Novi Grad, Novo Sarajevo, Stari Grad, Ilidža, Hadžići, Ilijaš, Pale, Trnovo, and Vogošća.[1] [11]

Total Population (10 Municipalities): 527,049 [1] [4]

In the four core urban municipalities (Centar, Novi Grad, Novo Sarajevo, Stari Grad), the population was 361,735, with Muslims making up 49.6%, Serbs 25.5%, and Croats 5.8%.[11]

Post-War Demographics (2013 Census)

The post-war data reflects the division of the pre-war city into the Sarajevo Canton (Federation of BiH) and East Sarajevo (Republika Srpska). Lukavica, specifically, became the administrative center of East Sarajevo.[8] [11]

Sarajevo Canton (Federation of BiH)

Total Population: 413,593 [11]

East Sarajevo (Republika Srpska)

East Sarajevo was formed from parts of pre-war Sarajevo municipalities that were assigned to the Republika Srpska, including Lukavica (part of Novo Sarajevo/Istočno Novo Sarajevo) and Pale.[8] [11]

Total Population: 61,516 [1]

Comparative Analysis of Changes

The shift in population can be quantified by the change in ethnic density across the divided regions. The percentage of Serbs in the Sarajevo Canton dropped from approximately 30% to just over 3%, while the percentage of Bosniaks in the same area rose to nearly 83%.[2] [11]

The demographic shift was driven by several factors:

1. The Siege: Approximately 12,000 people were killed and 50,000 wounded during the 43-month siege.[11]
2. Internal Displacement: An estimated 200,000 refugees from Eastern Bosnia (mostly Bosniaks) fled into the city center during the war.[10]
3. The 1996 Exodus: Following the Dayton Accords, as Serb-held suburbs (Grbavica, Ilidža, Vogošća) were reintegrated into the Federation, an estimated 62,000 Serbs left the city for the Republika Srpska, often encouraged by their own leadership to relocate to places like Lukavica and Pale.[8] [11]

The mathematical representation of the population decline in the core city area can be expressed as: $$\mathrm{\Delta }P=P_{1991}-P_{2013}$$ $$\mathrm{\Delta }P=527,049-(413,593+61,516)=51,940$$ This indicates a net loss of approximately 10% of the total metropolitan population, though the "unmixing" of ethnic groups was far more severe than the total population decline suggests.[2] [11]